Solana has retraced more than 50% from its all-time high of $295 in January, possibly driven by declining meme coin trading activity.
Solana (SOL) has had its worst monthly performance since the FTX collapse in November 2022, falling 38% in the last 30 days. Declining memecoin trading activity, which previously contributed to Solana’s massive on-chain volume, has been a major factor.
As of Feb. 26, a whopping 8.1 million tokens have been minted on Pump.fun, Solana’s memecoin trading platform. The platform has subsequently generated $577 million in fees. On Feb. 12, Pump.fun’s daily trading volume peaked at a monthly high of $218 million. But it appears that momentum has slowed.
Data from a Dune analytics dashboard shows that trading volume has decreased 94% in a single day, from $89.5 million on Feb. 25 to just $5.03 million on Feb. 26. The majority of tokens are down 80–90% from their peaks, reflecting the decline in the larger memecoin market.
Solana’s decentralized finance ecosystem has seen a significant outflows as a result of this crisis. According to DefiLlama, Solana’s TVL has dropped from $12 billion in early mid-January to $7.13 billion, losing $5 billion in less than a month.
In the last 30 days, Raydium, the decentralized exchange that houses Pump.fun-graduated memecoins, has seen a 50% TVL drop. Capital is also moving to other networks as Solana’s activity wanes. In the past 30 days, more than $500 million has been bridged to Ethereum (ETH), Arbitrum (ARB), and Sonic (SONIC)
SOL is currently trading at $142, having dropped 15% in the last 7 days. Bulls are struggling to establish a support level, with $140 acting as a key threshold. If SOL fails to hold above this level, the next major support lies between $125 and $130. A breakdown below this range could push SOL to its lowest price since Aug. 2024.
SOL needs to recover the $150 mark and witness a resurgence in TVL and on-chain volumes to resume its bullish momentum. Until then, there is still a strong potential for more declines, which increases uncertainty.
An upcoming 11.2 million token unlock on March 1 could further put pressure on SOL. Additionally, there is a low chance of a Solana ETF being approved soon, which lessens the likelihood of an institutional trigger happening right away.
