Solana under potential capitulation as SOL price drops below key metric for first time since 2022

Solana’s price falls below key technical level for the first time since March 2022, signaling potential extended decline ahead.

The price of Solana (SOL), once the third-largest token by market capitalization, after Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), has plunged below the realized price level on March 11 for the first time in almost three years.

Data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the price of SOL is now about 8% lower than the realized price of $134, which was last seen on March 9.

The realized price represents the average price at which Solana tokens were last moved or purchased. When the price drops below it, it can indicate that many holders are underwater, meaning they paid more for their tokens than they’re worth now.

The last time SOL fell below that technical level was in March 2022, when the price entered a multi-week slide, only recovering above that level in November 2023. However, there have been cases where the price briefly dropped below this metric, such as in November 2020, when it dipped below $2, but then recovered by February 2021, Glassnode’s data shows.

It’s unclear how things will unfold this time, as SOL’s decline coincides with a broad market selloff. Data from DefiLlama also shows that Solana’s fee revenue has plummeted to around $420,000 per day, a 90% drop since January when SOL was trading at $250, likely triggered by the memecoin frenzy.

In October 2023, asset management firm VanEck predicted that Solana could see a 10,000% growth in value by 2030 if the blockchain attracts 100 million users. In its diverse valuation scenarios, VanEck acknowledged a bearish case, where SOL could trade around $9.81, though it also noted that a bullish scenario could push the SOL price above $3,200 by 2030.