The unexpected rise in Bitcoin’s institutional adoption through exchange-traded funds has transformed crypto cycles, analysts say.
While spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds have made BTC more stable by turning it into an asset class that institutions can invest in, altcoins still face the same high. In a recent research report, analysts at a Singapore-based firm Signum Capital revealed that the shift signals a big transition from the market’s traditional four-year cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events.
According to the analysts, the market now experiences “shorter bursts of outperformance and underperformance, driven by liquidity flows, investor positioning, and changing risk sentiment.”
“While Bitcoin is experiencing increased price stability, altcoins remain as volatile as ever, still subject to reflexive cycles of euphoria and panic.”
Signum Capital
Analysts point to recent market movements as evidence of the shift, citing a significant downturn in August 2024 that impacted both stocks and cryptocurrencies. That drop followed the Bank of Japan’s unexpected rate hike, which analysts say sparked “widespread market volatility,” with the unwinding of the yen carry trade “putting downward pressure on equities and crypto alike.”
“The idea of fixed four-year crypto cycles may no longer hold true. Instead, we are seeing shorter, more fragmented periods of outperformance, driven by macro shifts, regulatory changes, and fast-moving narratives.”
Signum Capital
Despite the volatility, experts emphasize the importance of staying informed and adaptable in today’s crypto environment, with analysts noting that rather than logging off during downturns, those who track emerging narratives “will be best positioned.”
Earlier in March, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicted that in the next six to 12 months, Bitcoin will see “bearish or sideways price action.” To support his conclusion, Ju noted in another X post that “every on-chain metric signals a bear market,” adding that “with fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.”
