President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ bill is set to become law, a move that some argue will increase U.S. deficits and debt while likely boosting Bitcoin and altcoin prices in the long term.
The bill extends the 2017 tax cuts Trump signed into law. It also introduces new tax measures he campaigned on, including a $1,000 tax credit for all children born in the country and exemptions for tips. It will also raise the estate tax exemption to $15 million.
The “big, beautiful” bill will likely be bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins for several reasons.
Big, beautiful bill to boost Bitcoin and altcoins
First, the bill is expected to increase the U.S. public debt and deficit. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates it will raise public debt by $3.3 trillion over the next ten years. It will also push the debt-to-GDP ratio from 100% to 125%, compared to 117% under current law.
The surging debt comes as the U.S. has lost its last triple-A credit rating from Moody’s. S&P Global and Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s rating in 2011 and 2023, respectively.
Rising risks of a U.S. government default are considered bullish for Bitcoin, which is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset. Many Bitcoin analysts, including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, believe that it is digital gold.
In a recent white paper, BlackRock noted that Bitcoin was a unique diversifier and that many investors are buying it to hedge against growing U.S. debt.
Analysts cite Bitcoin’s tokenomics, a capped supply of 21 million coins and a halving mechanism that slows its issuance by cutting block rewards every four years.Bitcoin’s falling supply is occurring just as institutional and government demand is rising.
Second, the “big, beautiful bill” could also boost Bitcoin by introducing new tax breaks, increasing the disposable income of many Americans.
More disposable income could lead some people to buy Bitcoin and other altcoins. A notable example occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic when Americans used stimulus checks to purchase Bitcoin.
Additionally, the bill will likely expand the M2 money supply in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve may be forced to print money to fund the growing deficit. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the M2 money supply, albeit with a lag. Most altcoins then tend to follow Bitcoin’s price movements.
Finally, the bill’s tax cuts and deregulation measures could help to offset the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs and help to reduce recession risks. Falling recession risks would then be bullish for Bitcoin and other altcoins.
