Bitcoin may be entering the final phase of its current bull cycle, with a potential market peak just months away, according to market analyst Rekt Capital.
In a recent breakdown, the Bitcoin (BTC) analyst compared the current market structure to past halving cycles, using historical timeframes to estimate where Bitcoin stands. His analysis is based on a model where Bitcoin typically peaks between 518 and 550 days after halving, a pattern seen in both the 2016 and 2020 cycles.
According to Rekt Capital, the market is roughly 88% through the typical post-halving period, now entering the later stages of the cycle. If the same trend holds, the next cycle top could fall within late September and mid-October 2025.
While some market participants may expect the current cycle to stretch into 2026, Rekt Capital cautioned against extending expectations too far beyond historical patterns, saying that doing so could lead investors to miss the window of opportunity.
One of the defining features of this cycle, according to Rekt Capital, is the longest post-halving reaccumulation period in Bitcoin’s history. For eight months after the April 2024 halving, BTC remained in a period of consolidation.
According to the analyst, this was necessary to offset the strong pre-halving upside that pushed the asset’s price significantly ahead of schedule and realign the cycle with historical trends.
What comes next?
With the crypto king still consolidating just below its all-time high, Rekt Capital explained that similar phases of slowing momentum or “price discovery corrections” occurred at this stage in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. These periods often gave way to renewed momentum leading into the final phase of the bull market.
However, he emphasized that as the cycle matures, the risk-to-reward ratio begins to shift. While some upside may remain, the scale of potential gains becomes smaller compared to the downside risk of a full-cycle correction. Rekt Capital cited historical drawdowns of 60–70% that followed prior bull market tops, underscoring the importance of managing risk and preparing for volatility.
Rekt Capital also addressed the idea of cycle extensions, noting that while the current cycle could stretch slightly, as past ones have by around 30 days, using those assumptions to delay profit-taking carries risk.
“The danger here is if we’re going to keep moving the goalpost, at some point we’re going to miss that bull market top,” he said.
With that in mind, the analyst suggested sticking to past patterns, and that anything beyond the historical window should be treated as “bonus time” rather than a guarantee of further upside. The focus for investors, he said, should now shift toward preparing for that window, protecting gains, and not getting distracted by newer cycle narratives that lack historical backing.
BTC has been in a steady climb over the past week, trading slightly over $108,840 at press time.
