Altcoins shed over $1T in November as TOTAL3 dumped and capital rotated into stablecoins, but multiple analysts argue this looks like late-stage altcoin bear conditions before the next expansion phase.
Summary
- TOTAL3 shows heavy capital outflows from altcoins into stablecoins after Bitcoin weakness, with November wiping out most of the year’s gains.
- Michaël van de Poppe and others frame this as the end of the altcoin bear, not the macro bull, noting business-cycle differences from the classic four-year Web3 pattern.
- Despite many coins halving, leaders like Binance’s token, Hyperliquid, and Avalanche have outperformed, while some analysts do not expect a full altcoin rally until next year.
Altcoins experienced significant losses in November, with more than a trillion dollars exiting cryptocurrency markets and erasing most gains accumulated earlier in the year, according to market data.
Analysts have been monitoring TOTAL3, a metric representing total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, for indicators of capital rotation between different cryptocurrency sectors.
Analysts bearish as $1T in Altcoins get wiped out in November
An analyst operating under the name “Stockmoney Lizards” stated that capital appears to be rotating into stablecoins, describing a pattern where Bitcoin (BTC) declines lead to movement into stablecoins, followed by eventual rotation into altcoins. The analyst characterized the current market phase as a waiting period.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, stated that the current period represents the end of a bear market for altcoins rather than the conclusion of the broader bull market. Van de Poppe referenced historical business cycles to illustrate when altcoins have previously rallied, adding that the current cycle differs significantly from the traditional four-year Web3 cycle.
Analyst Sykodelic examined TOTAL3 charts and compared them to the previous market cycle, stating that current positioning resembles conditions that preceded previous altcoin expansion periods.
Many altcoins declined by half or more during November but have shown modest recovery. Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) recovered some losses, according to market data. Binance’s token (BNB), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Avalanche (AVAX) posted larger gains. Total market capitalization has increased but remains below October levels.
Analyst Alex Wacy noted that multiple indicators suggest a potential significant altcoin rally, though the analyst stated that if current trends continue, such a rally may not fully materialize until next year.
