Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium has stayed negative for seven days, signaling weaker U.S. spot demand as Western year-end selling contrasts with steady Asian dip-buying.
Summary
- The Coinbase Bitcoin premium has been negative for seven consecutive days, indicating U.S. spot prices trading at a discount to the global average.
- Year-end portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking and tax-loss harvesting are pressuring U.S. flows, while Asian traders accumulate BTC on intraday dips.
- Similar U.S.-selling/Asia-buying patterns in 2019, March 2020 and late 2022 ultimately preceded higher prices once Western selling pressure exhausted.
Coinbase premium has remained negative for seven consecutive days, indicating weakening cryptocurrency demand in the United States compared to other global markets, according to data from Coinglass.
The premium, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets trading on the US-based Coinbase exchange compared to major alternatives such as Binance, was also negative for most of November, the data showed.
A negative Coinbase premium typically signals that US spot demand is lagging behind other markets, reflecting reduced institutional buying activity and more cautious capital deployment, market analysts said.
The metric serves as a sentiment indicator for institutional and retail demand across different regions. When positive, it suggests strong buying pressure from US investors, particularly institutional buyers who frequently use Coinbase. A negative reading indicates American investors are selling or showing less buying interest relative to other regions.
Year-end portfolio dynamics may be contributing to the trend, with institutions rebalancing portfolios, taking profits, and engaging in tax-loss harvesting as the fiscal year closes, according to market observers. While such activity is typical for December, the magnitude this year has been more pronounced, analysts noted.
Asian markets appear to be exhibiting opposite behavior, with traders in the region buying during price declines while US and European traders sell, according to trading data.
Similar patterns have emerged during previous market cycles, including in 2019, March 2020, and late 2022, when Western selling was followed by Asian accumulation. In those instances, prices eventually moved higher following the Asian buying activity.
Over the past two weeks, liquidation events have triggered cryptocurrency market declines during late US trading hours, followed by accumulation during Asian morning trading sessions, market data indicated.
