Bitcoin price has bounced back in the past few days, but an emerging risky pattern points to a potential reversal in the near term.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $85,630 on April 15, its highest level in nearly two weeks and 15.2% above its monthly low.
The ongoing recovery happened after Donald Trump softened his stance on tariffs. He initially issued a 90-day pause on tariffs from over 70 countries.
Over the weekend, the Trump administration added that some electronics and semiconductors would be exempt from these levies. In his latest statement, Trump also pledged support for automakers navigating the ongoing tariff crisis.
This announcement contributed to further gains in the stock market, with futures tied to the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all trending higher.
Bitcoin price faces a potential death cross risk
While Bitcoin’s rebound is encouraging, it now faces the risk of forming a death cross — a bearish technical pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.
The gap between these two averages has narrowed to just 472 points, signaling a potential crossover. If this happens, Bitcoin could resume its downward trend and potentially retest this month’s low of $74,500 — about 13% below current levels.
On the other hand, a breakout above both moving averages would invalidate the death cross and signal more upside, potentially pushing BTC toward the psychological level of $90,000.
Adding to the risk, the S&P 500 index has also formed a death cross, a signal that historically points to more downside. The last time this occurred was in 2022, when the index fell by 17%.
Since Bitcoin and equities are both considered risk-on assets, a bearish signal in the stock market could weigh further on Bitcoin’s price.
Gold maintains its edge as a safe haven
Meanwhile, gold continues to perform well as investors seek out safe-haven assets. The precious metal has surged more than 20% this year, reaching a record high of $3,245. Goldman Sachs recently raised its gold price target to $3,700.
The rally has been fueled by strong demand from central banks, retail investors, and institutions. Countries like India, Turkey, Russia, and China have continued accumulating gold throughout 2024.
Similarly, top gold ETFs like the GLD and IAU have also attracted more inflows from retail and institutions. Therefore, there are signs that investors prefer gold to American stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin for their safety. The Swiss franc has also become a top safe haven as it surged to the highest point in over a decade.
