Coinbase has warned that crypto may be entering a new bear market, but it expects prices to find support between May and June, potentially setting up a stronger Q3.
In its monthly report published on Apr. 15, Coinbase noted that the total crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin (BTC), has fallen 41% from its $1.6 trillion peak in December 2024 to about $950 billion. At the same time, venture capital investment in crypto remains 50–60% below the highs seen during the 2021–2022 cycle.
These developments, along with global tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty, have added pressure to the market, particularly for altcoins. Many investors usually define a bear market as a 20% price drop, but Coinbase believes this rule no longer works well for crypto.
It instead advocates the use of risk-adjusted returns and the 200-day moving average to better understand longer-term market shifts. For example, while Bitcoin is down less than 20% since December, it has fallen below its 200-day moving average, indicating a bigger shift in the market.
The report also mentions that Coinbase’s COIN50 index, which tracks the top 50 non-Bitcoin tokens, has also slipped below this level. This often signals that weakness in the market could continue for a longer time. Although Bitcoin’s decline has been modest, altcoins have experienced much steeper losses.
Coinbase points out that this gap shows the increased volatility in newer sectors of crypto, such as memecoins, DePIN projects, and artificial intelligence-related tokens. As a result, relying solely on Bitcoin to judge market conditions may no longer be enough. Broader indicators like the COIN50 provide a more complete view of investor sentiment.
Coinbase remains cautiously optimistic despite recent struggles. It sees a chance for the market to reach a bottom by mid-to-late Q2 2025, with a possible recovery in Q3 if global conditions improve. Until then, the firm recommends a cautious and flexible approach, as investors face weaker liquidity and a lower appetite for risk.
