Prediction markets are shifting expectations for the CLARITY Act into 2027 after Senate leaders declined to start the procedural process needed for a vote before the August recess.
Summary
- Kalshi odds for the bill taking effect before July 2027 fell 8 points to 41%.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file a cloture motion on Tuesday.
- Contracts now assign a 65% chance that the bill becomes law before January 2028.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said crypto “will be fine” without immediate congressional action.
CLARITY Act odds shift toward 2027
Kalshi traders have become more doubtful that Congress will complete work on the CLARITY Act in 2026 as the Senate’s pre-recess window narrows.
A contract tracking whether the legislation will take effect before July 1, 2027, dropped eight percentage points to 41% on Tuesday. The decline suggests traders increasingly expect the process to extend beyond 2026, although the contract does not measure passage during 2026 alone.
The probability of the bill taking effect before Oct. 1, 2027, stood at 58%. Odds for enactment before Jan. 1, 2028, rose to 65%, showing that bettors still expect the legislation to advance over a longer timeframe.
More than $5.42 million has been traded across the Kalshi market. The shift followed another day without a cloture filing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, preventing the chamber from starting the formal countdown toward a procedural vote.
Senate delay narrows the voting window
The Senate’s Aug. 4 floor schedule did not include H.R. 3633, and the chamber’s official list of pending cloture motions named two unrelated measures. No motion covering the CLARITY Act had been announced by the end of Tuesday’s session.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan identified Wednesday, Aug. 5, as the practical deadline for Senate leaders to file cloture and preserve the possibility of a Friday vote.
Under Senate Rule XXII, a cloture motion requires signatures from 16 senators. The vote ordinarily takes place one hour after the Senate convenes on the following calendar day but one after the filing. If cloture succeeds, the measure can still face up to 30 hours of debate.
The timeline leaves lawmakers with little room to resolve outstanding disagreements before the August recess. Journalist Eleanor Terrett attributed Thune’s decision partly to procedural complications involving a continuing resolution, uncertainty over support, and unresolved provisions.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning the bill would need at least seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote cloture threshold if every Republican supported it.
Gaming dispute adds another hurdle
Lawmakers are also considering changes intended to protect state and tribal authority over sports betting and casino-related markets.
During a Senate Indian Affairs Committee roundtable on Tuesday, Indian Gaming Association Vice Chairman Tehassi Hill argued that sports and casino prediction markets should remain governed by state and tribal gaming laws. That position conflicts with interpretations that would place such contracts exclusively under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Supporters of the proposed change view the CLARITY Act as a potential vehicle for defining the limits of the CFTC’s power over prediction markets. However, adding the dispute to a broader crypto market structure package could make an already difficult bipartisan negotiation more complicated.
Separate discussions over ethics provisions and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act have also remained unresolved as lawmakers approach the recess.
Crypto adoption may continue without Congress
Hougan said the digital asset industry could continue growing even if the Senate fails to act before lawmakers leave Washington.
“Crypto will be fine,” Hougan wrote in an Aug. 4 investor memo.
He argued that SEC rulemaking could offer an alternative route for regulatory clarity while banks and other traditional financial companies expand their digital asset operations. His comments represent an industry outlook rather than a confirmed regulatory outcome.
Missing the immediate Senate window would not kill the CLARITY Act. It would, however, delay efforts to establish a statutory division of authority between the SEC and CFTC and leave U.S. crypto companies relying more heavily on agency rules and existing enforcement interpretations.
Kalshi’s latest pricing reflects that distinction. Traders have not abandoned the prospect of market structure legislation, but they increasingly expect any final agreement to arrive in 2027 rather than before the end of 2026.
