Bitcoin Depot’s return to growth in 2025 appears to be underappreciated by the market, according to a report from Mike Colonnese, a crypto equity analyst at H.C. Wainwright & Co.
Bitcoin Depot (NASDAQ: BTM), a provider of Bitcoin Depot kiosks with exposure in 48 states, announced fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on March 18. Total revenue of $573.7 million for the full year was down 17% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA for the year also fell by 31% to $38.7 million.
The decline reflects BTM’s strategic decision to relocate underperforming kiosks to more profitable locations, a move that temporarily weighed on results but sets the company up for stronger performance in 2025, according to Colonnese.
Q1 guidance paints a bullish picture
The company guided for first quarter revenue to be up 9% to 11% year-over-year at $154 million while EBITDA is guided at a range of $12 million to $14 million, implying a growth of over 200% compared to the first quarter of 2024 and significantly ahead of the consensus estimate of $7.4 million.
Q1 guidance exceeded expectations and reflects improved visibility into operating performance. The company’s ability to provide guidance for the first time in over a year is a positive signal of operational stability The analyst wrote:
“This is the first time in a year that management has issued formal financial guidance, which in and of itself is bullish, as we see it.”
Positive outlook for 2025
For 2025, Colonnese projects 5% revenue growth as BTM benefits from increased kiosk deployments and improved profitability from its strategic repositioning efforts. The analyst also estimates adjusted EBITDA will grow by 24% year-over-year, driven by operating leverage and tighter expense control.
Management also reiterated the possibility of initiating a dividend this year, supported by the company’s strong cash flow generation. Colonnese emphasized that this could be a meaningful catalyst for investor confidence.
“We were not surprised to see the stock react positively on the print given a bullish 1Q25 outlook along with the recent underperformance in shares,” Colonnese noted
The research firm is maintaining a Buy rating on the stock with a $4 price target despite shares being down nearly 15% since the start of the year.
