Nansen Research has highlighted the macroeconomic factors and cues this week that the firm says could confirm the probability of a crypto bottom between April and June.
Nansen principal researcher Aurelie Barthere shared the outlook on April 1, 2025, noting that this week will see notable data releases and policy announcements.
The macroeconomic factors that investors across the markets will focus on this week include the Federal Reserve policy, tariffs and U.S. growth via signals such as manufacturing and jobs data.
According to Nansen, this “Liberation Week” is set to see key data disclosures and potential political announcements, which when combined with prevailing market sentiment, could provide an indicator to the price trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto.
Barthere has a similar forecast for other financial assets, with equities having suffered in recent weeks.
Tariff jtters also continue to dictate crypto and risk assets movement. Recent 25% auto tariffs announcement, as do potential reciprocal tariffs, is a key concern. However, Nansen researchers say flexibility that sees “constructive negotiations” and concessions from the world’s largest economies, including the Eurozone, Japan and China, will be positive.
The same applies to a balancing act from the Fed, with chair Jerome Powell set to speak on Friday. According to Nansen, clarity on the odds of three rate cuts for the year is expected across the market.
On what investors might want to get from Powell’s speech, Nansen said:
“We would like to hear Fed Chair Powell reiterate his FOMC’s press conference rather dovish stance, e.g. concerns over growth will be prioritized and the Fed will be comfortable with cutting rates even with core inflation close to 3% YoY.”
In terms of employment data out on Friday, Nansen says non-farm payroll numbers for March between economist consensus at 139k and the six-month average of 191k and an unemployment rate of 4.3% will be good news for investors.
This is key as growth concerns amid the recent 11% drop for the S&P 500 weigh down on investors. Technical indicators for BTC are also not encouraging, with price failing to break above the 200-day moving average. Altcoins are also in sell-off mode, with most posting dead crosses to suggest a fragile market sentiment that will fancy any “good news”.
Overall, Nansen sees a positive outlook this week as one that will confirm the analytics platform’s 70% probability that crypto will track a bottom between April and June.
