Bitcoin has failed to sustain a move above $78,000 in the 24 hours following Wednesday’s FOMC decision, with three straight sessions of Bitcoin ETF outflows totalling over $490 million signalling that institutional allocators are pausing rather than adding exposure as uncertainty over the Fed’s direction deepens.
Summary
- Bitcoin ETF products logged $137.77 million in net outflows on April 29, ending a nine-day inflow streak worth $2.1 billion, with every active issuer printing negative for the first time in the streak — including IBIT at $54.73 million and FBTC at $36.13 million.
- Glassnode data show Bitcoin is “trapped” below its True Market Mean at approximately $78,000 to $79,000, with perpetual futures at their most negative level on record — a positioning setup that contains both downside risk from continued selling and upside potential from a short squeeze if spot demand returns.
- April closed with $2.44 billion in total Bitcoin ETF net inflows, a strong monthly reversal despite the late-month outflow pressure, with XRP ETFs the only product category to print positive flows on April 29 at $3.59 million.
Bitcoin ETF data from SoSoValue confirmed $137.77 million in net outflows on April 29, the third consecutive outflow session and the one that ended a nine-day inflow run. As crypto.news reported, April 29 was the first session in the streak where zero issuers printed positive — every active fund was in net redemption territory, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $54.73 million and Fidelity’s FBTC at $36.13 million.
“Bitcoin staying below the $78,000 mark isn’t really about crypto right now, it’s about what’s happening in the broader market,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack. “The Fed holding rates wasn’t a surprise, but there is no clear direction on what comes next, and that’s keeping investors from stepping in.”
Why the FOMC hold matters more than the rate
As crypto.news documented, Bitcoin has fallen after 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings. The pattern is driven not by the decision itself but by the unwinding of pre-event positioning once the meeting passes. What made Wednesday’s outcome distinctly more negative than a standard sell-the-news event was the four-way dissent — the first such split since October 1992 — and Powell’s announcement that he will stay on the Federal Reserve Board past May 15, introducing leadership uncertainty on top of policy ambiguity. Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo said the market is now “more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the division within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself,” pointing to a leadership overhang that has no clear resolution timeline.
“You’re seeing that directly in ETF outflows and weaker demand,” Reis-Faria added. “The buying just isn’t strong enough to push Bitcoin higher. It doesn’t mean institutions are leaving the market, it just means they’re not increasing their exposure right now.”
That distinction — pause versus exit — is supported by the April data. Despite three consecutive outflow sessions, April closed with $2.44 billion in total Bitcoin ETF net inflows, a sharp positive reversal from a quarter that began with negative year-to-date flows. As crypto.news tracked, the ETF outflow and Bitcoin price relationship is not mechanically linear: concentrated outflows from large funds can compress price without indicating a structural exit from the asset class.
What brings Bitcoin back above $78,000
Glassnode data show Bitcoin currently below its True Market Mean and short-term holder cost basis clustered between $78,000 and $79,000, with the $65,000 to $70,000 range as the key downside support if selling accelerates. Perpetual futures have flipped to their most negative positioning level on record, a setup that historically precedes sharp short squeezes when spot demand returns. The 48-hour window from April 30 to May 1 is the critical observation zone: stable ETF flows, BTC holding above $74,500, and normalizing funding rates would collectively signal that the post-FOMC selling has exhausted itself.
“If money starts coming back in, especially from institutions or through ETFs, Bitcoin can move higher pretty quickly,” Reis-Faria said. “But until that happens, it’s likely to stay in this range.”
The catalysts that could shift that equation are concentrated in May: the CLARITY Act markup window, the Warsh Senate confirmation vote, Big Tech earnings outcomes from the prior session, and whether the Iran military briefing reported by Axios this morning produces a further risk-off escalation or opens a path toward diplomatic resolution.
