Bitcoin has fallen back below $80,000 after stronger-than-expected US jobless claims data showed that layoffs remained historically low, raising fresh questions about the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
Summary
- Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 after briefly trading above $80,500, as buyers struggled to maintain the recovery despite the cryptocurrency remaining higher over the past 24 hours.
- US initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, below expectations of 196,000, matching the lowest level since 1969 and suggesting that employers remain reluctant to cut jobs.
- The stronger than expected labor market data could complicate expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which may put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $74.6 million in net inflows on November 4, ending three consecutive sessions of withdrawals, although flows across major funds remained mixed.
According to a November 5 US News report, initial unemployment claims dropped by 6,000 to 189,000 in the week ending October 31, compared with market expectations of 196,000. The previous week’s reading was revised to 195,000.
The latest figure matched the lowest level since mid-July, which was itself the lowest since 1969, suggesting that American employers remain reluctant to lay off workers despite uncertainty surrounding the economy.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading around $79,356 at the time of writing, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The cryptocurrency had earlier climbed above $80,500 before losing momentum and slipping below the psychological $80,000 level.
The pullback followed a recovery from the recent selloff surrounding the US midterm elections, when Bitcoin briefly dropped towards $75,600 before buyers returned.
Strong US jobless claims data complicates Fed rate cut expectations
The unexpectedly low number of unemployment claims suggests that the US labour market continues to hold up, even as businesses remain cautious about expanding their workforce.
According to the Associated Press, weekly claims have remained at or below 200,000 for eight consecutive weeks, while the four-week moving average fell to 194,750.
However, the employment picture remains mixed. Continuing jobless claims, which measure the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits, rose by 23,000 to 1.718 million, according to Reuters.
The difference between the two readings suggests that employers are laying off relatively few workers, but some people who have already lost their jobs are taking longer to find new employment.
For financial markets, the stronger initial claims reading could complicate expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
A resilient labour market gives policymakers more room to keep borrowing costs elevated while assessing inflation, potentially reducing the urgency for additional monetary easing.
Such an outcome could weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, particularly if traders begin pricing in fewer rate cuts over the coming months.
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4% during its October meeting, with investors now awaiting further employment data for clues about its next decision.
Bitcoin price struggles to hold $80,000 after recent recovery
Bitcoin’s latest decline comes after a volatile week in which institutional fund flows and the US midterm elections drove substantial price swings.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $74.6 million in net inflows on November 4, ending three consecutive sessions of withdrawals.
Fidelity’s FBTC attracted $236.7 million, although BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $201.2 million in outflows, showing that institutional demand remained uneven despite the overall positive reading.
The recovery was supported by a wave of short liquidations, with approximately $378 million in bearish cryptocurrency positions liquidated within an hour as prices recovered.
However, Bitcoin’s inability to maintain its position above $80,000 has brought immediate support levels back into focus.
The $79,000 to $79,500 region remains the nearest area to watch, while a sustained move below it could expose the $78,000 level.
On the upside, buyers would need to reclaim $80,000 and subsequently push through the $80,500 to $80,800 region to regain momentum.
The next major US economic release is the October employment report, scheduled for November 6. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect employers to have added approximately 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.
